Posted by
Darko Trifunovic on Wednesday, May 07, 2008 5:12:37 AM
Europol Reveals Trends in Jihadi Terrorism in Europe
By Thomas Renard
Terrorist activities in Europe increased dramatically in 2007,
according to the annual report published by Europol, the European
Union’s criminal intelligence agency [1]. Terrorists carried out—or
attempted to carry out—583 attacks last year, a 24 percent increase
from the previous year. Accompanying this increase in terrorist
activities was an increase in counter-terrorist operations: 1,044
individuals were arrested for terrorism-related offenses, a 48 percent
increase compared to 2006.
Most terrorist attacks were claimed or attributed to separatist groups
in the Basque country, Spain (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, or ETA), or in
Corsica, France (Fronte di Liberazione Naziunale di a Corsica, or
FLNC). ETA and FLNC were responsible for 517 attacks, constituting 88
percent of all terrorist actions. Arrests among separatist groups were
also responsible for the large increase in arrests in the European
Union (EU) in 2007. Spain saw a seven-fold increase in arrested
suspects compared to 2006, while France registered a 68 percent
increase. In total, arrests among separatist groups represented more
than half of the total arrests.
Islamist terrorism was statistically much less significant. Only four
attacks were recorded: Two failed bombings in the United Kingdom (the
Glasgow attacks), and two foiled plots in Germany (the Sauerland cell)
and Denmark (the Glasvej case). The number of arrests could indicate a
general decrease in jihadi activities. Indeed, EU police forces
arrested 201 jihadi suspects, 56 fewer than in 2006. However, it should
be mentioned that these numbers do not include arrests in Great
Britain, which refuses to communicate precise statistics, although
Britain did indicate a 30 percent increase in jihadi arrests. Including
the British data could result in an increase of the arrests between
2006 and 2007.
Despite the comparatively low number of attacks, Islamist terrorism is
still perceived as the main threat to European security. The reason for
this assessment cannot be measured in number of attacks or arrests; it
is an estimate of potential damages. “Most investigations into failed
and foiled Islamist terrorist attacks in the EU in 2007 showed that
Islamist terrorists continue to aim at causing indiscriminate mass
casualties,” claims the report. “This is not only observed in the
choice of targets but also in the methods and explosives used.”
Several European countries are currently—or were until very recently—at
a very high level of terrorism alert. This was the case, for instance,
in France, the UK, Spain and Belgium. On April 22, Gerard Bouman, head
of the Algemene Inlichtingen-en Veilgheidsdienst (AIVD—Dutch domestic
intelligence), confirmed that the threat of jihadi terrorism is growing
in the Netherlands [2], especially since the release of the
Islamophobic movie “Fitna” by Dutch extreme-right politician Geert
Wilders (AP, April 22).
The Europol report underscores several interesting trends in Islamist terrorism in Europe:
• First, “although the majority of all arrested suspects for Islamist
terrorism continue to be North African citizens, the member states
reported a high number of arrested suspects with the nationality of the
country of arrest.” This seems to confirm a growing threat of homegrown
terrorism that has been observed for several years.
• Second, this increase in homegrown terrorists is partly the result of
an increase in quantity and a “new quality” in jihadi propaganda in
Europe (see Terrorism Focus, February 20). It is now widely recognized
that propaganda on the internet has a central importance in
recruitment. Hence, some recent developments appear particularly
worrisome. For instance, al-Qaeda’s media arm, al-Sahab, now offers
English subtitles or translations. In order to target some specific
audiences, certain jihadi websites have recently decided to translate
jihadi material into other languages, such as German, despite some
apparent difficulties in using the language correctly (Die Welt,
February 8). Similarly, the website al-Ikhlas recently launched two new
forums in French and Italian [3].
Recruitment constitutes an important part of jihadi activities in
Europe and arrests related to this activity have increased. The
observed developments in propaganda and recruitment suggest that
al-Qaeda is taking roots in Europe and could potentially become
stronger in the near future. On April 18, European ministers of justice
reached agreement on a law that would condemn, among other things,
online propaganda and recruitment (AFP, April 18). This new law—which
must still be approved by the European Parliament—should facilitate EU
cooperation with internet providers and, eventually, allow the
identification of cyber-terrorists. According to Gilles de Kerchove
d’Ousselghem, the EU counter-terrorism coordinator, there are
approximately 5,000 jihadi websites that contribute to the
radicalization of European youth.
• Third, propaganda and recruitment serve multiple purposes. Some
would-be jihadis are recruited by local cells to carry out operations
in their own countries. Some are “self-recruited” through the media,
and constitute a “new generation” of terrorists [4]. Some limit their
support to financing terrorism. Others, finally, decide to join the
jihad abroad, in Iraq—which remains the main destination for European
fighters—in Afghanistan, or, increasingly (according to French
intelligence), in Somalia.
• Fourth, the remaining core leadership of al-Qaeda in Pakistan still
largely commands, controls and inspires jihadi terrorists in Europe.
Europol, however, recognizes the rising importance of groups
isolated—or more autonomous—from al-Qaeda’s core leadership, and their
potential threat to European security. “This expansion of the ‘al-Qaeda
franchise’ has the potential to constitute a threat to the EU’s
security,” claims the report. “It could provide al-Qaeda with access to
new centers of support which it can motivate and exploit.”
• Fifth, the report emphasizes the strategic importance of Iraq,
Afghanistan and Pakistan for European security. Should the situation in
Iraq improve or the war terminate, Iraqi fighters—European or not—could
relocate to other places and continue to wage jihad. Former Iraqi
fighters could, for instance, carry out operations in Europe, establish
new cells, or teach their know-how to young, would-be terrorists. In
other words, there is a risk that the Iraqi generation will follow a
similar path to the 1980s Afghan generation.
The problem with Afghanistan and Pakistan is more imminent. European
citizens receive training in Pakistani tribal areas camps, either to go
fight in Afghanistan, or to bring jihad back to Europe. “Al-Qaeda and
affiliated pro-Taliban groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan are
increasingly recognized as one of the main drivers of Islamist
extremism and terrorism in the EU,” says the report. This statement
underscores the European dilemma in facing terrorism. On one hand, EU
members recognize that their domestic security is related to the
evolution of the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. On the other
hand, however, they refuse a greater commitment in those regions for
various other reasons, including electoral concerns.
Finally, a last interesting trend relative to Islamist terrorism in
Europe concerns judicial sentences. In 2007, one-third of jihadi
terrorist suspects were acquitted, while only one-fifth of separatist
terrorists were discharged. This seems to indicate two things. First,
the strong emphasis on Islamist terrorism by security services has led
to a certain “paranoia” and abusive arrests that could ultimately hurt
European efforts in countering radicalization. However, it should also
be emphasized that some individuals were acquitted due to a lack of
evidence, but could still be related to terrorism. Second, the better
records in jailing separatist terrorists prove that European
intelligence agencies have a greater knowledge of separatist groups and
more effective strategies to counter them than is the case with
Islamist terrorism.
Although a large part of the Europol report is dedicated to Islamist
terrorism, it also includes other chapters on separatist terrorism,
left-wing terrorism, extreme-right terrorism, and single-issue
terrorism. Four points concerning those other forms of terrorism are
worth a quick highlight:
• Attacks by separatist groups continue to overwhelmingly outnumber any other form of terrorism.
• ETA activities remain largely based in Spain, with logistical support
in France. However, Portugal noticed an increase of Basque activities
within its borders.
• ETA is starting to use propaganda videos in order to recruit among
youth. This confirms that terrorist groups copy successful strategies
developed by other groups, in this case al-Qaeda’s model.
• Extreme-left terrorism is regionally in decline. However, these
activities increased in Italy. Moreover, French Interior Minister
Michèle Alliot-Marie declared recently that left-wing groups constitute
a resurgent threat to domestic security (AFP, February 10).
Looking at the number of attacks, separatist groups are more active
than jihadi terrorists. However, jihadi groups are still perceived as
the main threat to European security due to their potential for damage.
Moreover, it appears that the Islamist threat is growing. Al-Qaeda is
taking roots in Europe, seducing an increasing number of EU citizens,
although the influence of the core leadership remains important. In
terms of counter-terrorist strategies, the EU as a whole—as well as EU
members individually—are taking some steps to increase their
efficiency. Nevertheless, they are still better at fighting separatist
movements than at countering jihad.
Notes
1. “TE-SAT 2008 – EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report,” Europol, April 2008.
2. “Jaarverslag AIVD 2007,” Algemene Inlichtingen-en Veiligheidsdienst, April 2008.
3. “Islamist Website Al-Ikhlas Launches French, Italian Forums,” MEMRI Islamist Websites Monitor Project, April 4, 2008.
4. Marc Sageman, “The Next Generation of Terror,” Foreign Policy, March/April 2008.