At a recent security conference in Munich, U.S. Defense Secretary
Robert Gates told European nations that they were under direct threat
from Islamist extremists and that this phenomenon would not go away.
Gates tied European security to NATO success in Afghanistan. In fact,
Western intelligence services have recently established operational
links between al-Qaida in Afghanistan and al-Qaida in the Islamic
Maghreb (AQIM) whose goals include striking at the heart of Europe.
Al-Qaida
has not made any secrets of its eagerness to target Europe. Indeed,
al-Qaida's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has repeatedly threatened
Europe. In 2007, numerous al-Qaida-linked plots were foiled in Europe
and several cells were dismantled in France, Spain, Denmark, Belgium,
Germany and the UK. This led Gilles de Kerchove, the EU's anti-terror
chief, to say last November that al-Qaida was the biggest threat to
Europe.
Thanks to the outstanding job of counter-terrorism
services, al-Qaida's only major success in Europe in 2007 was the June
30 attack on Glasgow airport that killed one and injured five. That
attack had followed two foiled car bombs in the center of London that
could have killed hundreds if successful. The scheme was nicknamed the
"doctors' plot," because it was planned by foreign doctors (Indians and
Arabs) who resided in Britain.
In September, thanks to
information provided by U.S. intelligence, Germany arrested three
members of an al-Qaida cell that planned to bomb Frankfurt airport and
the U.S. military airbase at Ramstein. This network allegedly had ties
to other European countries, since the explosives seized were similar
to those used in the London plots. The investigation also showed that
the alleged terrorists had connections to both Pakistan and Syria.
Another important fact is that two of the three were Muslim converts.
In fact, al-Qaida has for long advocated using European nationals, and
if possible converts, in terror attacks.
Incidentally,
German intelligence confirmed that in recent months Islamist recruiters
have targeted new converts to Islam, because they are less conspicuous
and are familiar with German culture and habits. German authorities are
particularly worried by the rise in the number of young German Muslims
traveling to study in Pakistan. In July, Pakistani authorities arrested
seven Germans who sought to join a terrorist training camp.
The
Pakistani connection does not stop there: indeed, Pakistani extremists
recently arrived in Algeria to train with AQIM members. This is all the
more worrisome in that of all al-Qaida's affiliates, AQIM is most
capable of striking at Europe. Last year AQIM pulled off a number of
spectacular and deadly terror attacks in Morocco, in Mauritania –
killing French tourists – and in Algeria, notably the multiple suicide
attacks in Algiers on April 11 and Dec. 11.
But the real
challenge for AQIM is how to inflict massive damage in Europe. Zawahiri
has frequently instructed them to do so. In order to keep its
credibility alive and please its "masters," AQIM has been trying hard
to orchestrate a terror attack on the continent. At the end of last
year, the level of "chatter" increased dramatically, and has continued
unabated through January. France, in particular has been specifically
threatened. This led for the first time to the cancellation of the very
popular Paris-Dakar motor rally and also compelled Belgian authorities
to cancel the New Year's Eve fireworks in Brussels.
Today, al-Qaida threats seem even more imminent and European security services are on high alert.
On
Jan. 19, Spain dismantled an al-Qaida cell that was almost exclusively
Pakistani, except for an Indian member. It was planning a terror attack
in Barcelona, El Pais reported, and a wave of attacks in Germany,
France, Britain and Portugal. Earlier, Le Figaro reported that there
are allegedly "moving cells" of militant extremists of Pakistani origin
traveling around Europe. That article also pointed out that 50,000
Pakistanis live in France – half of them illegally.
A
very worrisome trend in 2007 was the emergence of the "lone jihadist"
loosely linked to al-Qaida. One was arrested on May 2 in Nancy, France.
He was planning attacks against the U.S. consulate in Luxembourg and a
McDonald's restaurant.
For months, the man had been in contact
with AQIM militants via the Web, requesting material support. Sometimes
these "invisible Islamists" decide to act on their own. "An isolated
individual can inflict as much damage as an organization," said
Christophe Chaboud, head of Uclat (Unité de Coordination de la Lutte
antiterroriste), the French counter-terrorism czar.
Europe
is facing a triple threat: AQIM, "al-Qaida Pakistan" and the lone
jihadist. This makes counter-terrorist experts nervous that the
likelihood of a successful attack on European soil in 2008 remains
quite high.
--
Olivier Guitta, an adjunct fellow at the
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and
counter-terrorism consultant, is the founder of the newsletter, The
Croissant (www.thecroissant.com).